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Market view

View: the short and the long term

The short term is the market regime by formulas you can test in the lab. The long term is principles and big trends, with sources. There are no price forecasts here: only rules, numbers and their history.

The market view is calculated automatically by open rules (the price above or below its 10-month average and its level a year ago). It is a result of technical analysis and is the same for every reader: it does not take into account your goals, time horizon, risk tolerance or financial situation. Signals lag and can be false. This is not individual investment advice.

Market regimes

Price, changes and position against the 10-month average, from fresh closes.

MarketPriceMonthYear to dateYearVs averageFrom peakVolatilityRegime
MOEX Russia IndexIMOEX · price index————————
MOEX Russia Total ReturnMCFTR · total return index————————
Russian Government Bond TR IndexRGBITR · total return index————————
SberbankSBER · price without dividends————————
GazpromGAZP · price without dividends————————
US equitiesOECD USA · OECD, monthly, 2015 = 100————————
German equitiesOECD DEU · OECD, monthly, 2015 = 100————————
Japanese equitiesOECD JPN · OECD, monthly, 2015 = 100————————
Chinese equitiesOECD CHN · OECD, monthly, 2015 = 100————————
Indian equitiesOECD IND · OECD, monthly, 2015 = 100————————
Gold, $ per ounceXAU · Bank of Russia prices converted to dollars————————
Silver, $ per ounceXAG · Bank of Russia prices converted to dollars————————
Brent crude, $ per barrelBrent · EIA, spot, closes only————————
US dollar in rublesUSD/RUB · Bank of Russia, official rate————————
Chinese yuan in rublesCNY/RUB · Bank of Russia, official rate————————
Euro in US dollarsEUR/USD · Fed, closes only————————
BitcoinBTC · Binance, around the clock, UTC————————
EtherETH · Binance, around the clock, UTC————————
VN-IndexVN-Index · price index————————

The numbers are calculated in your browser from fresh source candles.

    The “Uptrend” regime means the price is above its 10-month average (about 200 trading days) and higher than a year ago. “Downtrend” means it is below both marks. “Mixed” means the marks disagree. The lab shows how often this rule was wrong on each market.

    Short term: what the rules say

    Trend rules do not predict; they follow the price. Their value is discipline: getting out of a prolonged decline and staying in for a long rise.

    A trend is not a forecast

    An “Uptrend” regime means only one thing: the moving-average rule would be in the market now. At turning points it is wrong, and the lab shows this in the trades and the yearly results.

    What stands out in autumn 2026

    Brent oil has doubled in price since the start of the year, gold and silver are far below their January records, and bitcoin and ether far below their 2025 peaks. In volatility like this, position size and the stop matter more than ideas.

    Russia: the rate and bonds

    The key rate is 14%, and 10-year Russian government bonds (OFZ) yield about 16.6% with inflation at 6.35%. While bonds give such a real return, stocks have to compete with them; compare the RGBITR and MCFTR indexes in the lab.

    Test it on your market

    Open the moving-average rule on the market you care about, see how many false signals it gave over the last three years, and test it on the “New data” tab.

    Long term: principles

    What withstands decades of testing is boring, and it works.

    An emergency fund and debts first

    Money for six months of living and paid-off expensive loans come before any investment. Money you will need within a year is not for risky assets.

    Broad and cheap

    A low-fee index fund on the broad market beats most active choices: in the study by Barber and Odean, the most active retail investors lagged the market by 6.5 percentage points a year.

    All at once or in parts

    Vanguard (2023): a lump-sum investment beat buying in parts over three months in 62–74% of cases. Buying in parts reduces regret, but on average it costs return.

    Expect less than the past

    Forecasts for 10–15 years (J.P. Morgan, October 2026): large US stocks 7.5% a year, global stocks 7.5%, gold 5.5%. Vanguard is more cautious: US stocks 4.8–6.8%, US bonds 5.1–6.1%. These are forecasts, not promises.

    Currency and country

    Capital in one currency and one country is a bet on one economy. Diversifying across countries and currencies lowers the risk that your whole investing life falls on the worst decade of one market.

    A rule matters more than a forecast

    Rules written down in advance (how much to buy, when to review, what to do after a 30% fall) protect you from emotional decisions. Test your rule in the lab.

    Big trends of 2026

    What is changing markets right now, with sources.

    The AI build-out

    The four largest US companies spend about $725–745 billion a year on data centers. Profits are growing, and so is the debate about a “bubble”: in October 2026 the Nasdaq lost 5.3%.

    Energy shock

    The war around Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have doubled the price of Brent oil since the start of the year; inflation in the US and Europe is rising again.

    Rates rising again

    The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan raised rates in 2026; the 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.31% in October, the highest since 2002.

    Gold after the record

    A record of about $5,600 in January and a 30% fall by October. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold in record volumes.

    Tokenization and 24/5 trading

    The SEC has approved tokenized securities on Nasdaq, and nearly round-the-clock trading is expected by the end of 2026; the Moscow Exchange also trades on weekends.

    Retail investors

    In Russia, 42.7 million people have brokerage accounts; in Vietnam, there are more than 13.8 million accounts. More people in the market means a greater need for honest knowledge.

    Sources (10)