Currencies: rates, causes and common sense

What moves the ruble

• Oil and exporters’ revenue. In spring 2026, expensive oil after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz strengthened the ruble: on 22 May the dollar cost 70.79 rubles, the low of the year. In August, exporters sold 15% less currency while importers’ demand grew: on 3 September the dollar cost 87.00, the high of the year.
• The rate. A key rate of 14% with annual inflation at 6.8% (Bank of Russia estimate for 19 October): the wide rate gap with other countries makes ruble savings more profitable, and a rate cut narrows it.
• The budget rule. The Ministry of Finance buys or sells currency depending on the oil price; in March 2026 these operations were suspended.
• Restrictions. Investment abroad and imports are restricted, so demand for currency is lower than it would be without them.

How the Bank of Russia calculates the official rate

• The dollar: from banks’ over-the-counter trades as of 15:30 Moscow time; the Moscow Exchange has had no trading in the dollar with delivery since 13 June 2024.
• The euro: via the dollar since 8 June 2026. The dollar–ruble rate is multiplied by the European Central Bank’s euro–dollar rate, because there are few direct ruble–euro trades.
• The yuan: the weighted average rate of trades on the Moscow Exchange from 10:00 to 15:30.
• The rate is set by 18:00 and applies from the next day. It is a benchmark for taxes and accounting: banks and brokers sell currency at their own rates.

Where people hold currency in Russia in 2026

• On the exchange, through a broker: the yuan, the Belarusian ruble, the Kazakh tenge, the Turkish lira, the Armenian dram, the Kyrgyz som, the Tajik somoni, the Uzbek sum and precious metals trade against the ruble. Since 16 February 2026 the dollar trades only without delivery, settled in rubles; there is no euro–ruble pair. Brokers do not hand out cash.
• At a bank: a foreign currency account or deposit at the bank’s rate. Banks sell cash dollars and euros with no limit on the amount, if they have them at the cash desk; from 40,000 rubles you need a passport.
• From an account opened before 9 March 2022, you can withdraw up to $10,000 in cash; money credited later is paid out in rubles. The restrictions have been extended until 9 March 2027, and fees for cash currency withdrawals are banned until that date.
• You can take up to $10,000 in cash per person out of the country.

What it costs

• The spread is the difference between the buying and selling price. In mid-2026, banks sold the dollar at 1.5–4% above the official rate; cash is usually more expensive than non-cash. When you exchange back, you pay the spread again.
• The tax on exchange rate gains is 13% (15% on income above 2.4 million rubles a year) if you have owned the currency for less than three years. The gain is calculated in rubles: the sale amount minus the purchase amount; instead of expenses, you can take a deduction of up to 250,000 rubles a year.
• Interest on deposits, including foreign currency ones, is taxed above a tax-free amount: 1 million rubles × the highest key rate of the year. For 2026 this is 160,000 rubles of interest.

Currency risks in Russia

• Sanctions: the Moscow Exchange and many large banks are under sanctions, and foreign correspondent banks may delay or reject a transfer.
• Cash: the Bank of Russia states plainly that access to cash foreign currency depends on the sanctions of foreign states, while rubles can always be obtained.
• The yuan: in March 2026 banks were short of yuan, and rates on yuan swaps reached 40%, up to 59% intraday; by September, about 1%.
• Deposit insurance covers up to 1.4 million rubles per bank; foreign currency deposits are insured with payment in rubles, unallocated metal accounts are not.

What deposits and currency returned

• Total return in rubles over the 12 months to the end of September 2026 (Bank of Russia): ruble deposits and money market funds 15.6%, yuan deposits 12.8%, gold 10.4%, government bonds (OFZ) 8.7%, dollar deposits 4.8%, replacement bonds 2.9%, euro deposits 0.1%.
• Over the 12 months to January 2026 the gap was wider: foreign currency deposits and replacement bonds from −8.8% to −20.0%, ruble deposits +23.2%.
• Over a longer span the picture is different: since the start of 2022, gold has returned +155%, money market funds +91%, dollar deposits +23%. In 2023 the dollar rose 27% against the ruble and beat ruble deposits. The result depends heavily on the period chosen.

Exchange rate forecasts

• The median of the Bank of Russia macroeconomic survey (9–13 October 2026, 32 participants): an average dollar rate of 80.0 rubles in 2026, 89.4 in 2027 and 94.8 in 2028.
• A month earlier, the same analysts expected 79.9 and 88.8: forecasts are revised every month. From May to September 2026, the dollar rose from 70.8 to 87.0 rubles, 23% in three and a half months.

Vietnam: the dong

• The State Bank of Vietnam’s central rate was 25,637 dong per dollar on 31 October 2026; banks trade within a band of ±5% around it. In 2026 the dong has weakened by about 2% against the dollar.
• Payments in foreign currency within Vietnam are prohibited, except in permitted cases; residents buy foreign currency for study, medical treatment, travel and other purposes under the State Bank’s rules.

The currency of future spending

Measure return in the currency you will spend. If you spend in rubles, buying foreign currency is a bet on the ruble weakening. If study, medical treatment or travel abroad lie ahead, foreign currency covers a clear future expense.

The rate gap

A ruble deposit now pays about 13% a year, a dollar deposit about 1%. The dollar deposit wins only if the ruble weakens by more than about 12% over the year. That happened in 2023; in 2025–2026 the ruble won.

The real rate

A key rate of 14% with annual inflation at 6.8% (estimate for 19 October): ruble savings are currently beating inflation. When the rate is cut, this advantage narrows.

Time frame and swings

Over a short period the exchange rate is almost unpredictable: in 2026 the dollar rose 23% in three and a half months. Over a long period the ruble has historically lost value, from 30 rubles per dollar in 2010 to 80 now, but not every year and not evenly.

Costs

The spread when buying and selling, and a 13–15% tax on exchange rate gains when held for less than three years and on interest above the limit. Cash is usually more expensive than non-cash.

Access to the money

Money you cannot withdraw or transfer when you need it is worth less than it seems. Until 9 March 2027, cash foreign currency withdrawals are limited, and transfers depend on correspondent banks.

Not everything in one place

Foreign currency is one instrument alongside ruble deposits, bonds, gold and stocks. Different instruments win in different years.

Obligations

You must notify the tax office of an account opened abroad within a month and report on the money movements by 1 June, with some exceptions. You can take no more than $10,000 in cash per person out of the country.

A test on history

Exchange rates against the ruble are in the lab: you can check how plain buy and hold and trend rules worked on a currency over 10–30 years.